Fun With Exit Polls

I've had some on-going discussions with a friend on the effect of third party candidates.  A few items popped up that I thought worth blogging. 

For example, the idea that all Green votes are automatically Democratic votes lost is patently false.  It's simple to put together but it don't work like that in reality.   Exit polling has demonstrated that in the past. It's not even close to being right in independently minded places like Maine and New Hampshire.  Items on the 2000 race for Maine, New Hampshire and the whole country.

Decision 2000 - Main Exit Polls

"       GORE    BUSH    BUCHANAN        NADER
       No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a:
       % of total      category        % of category
       31              Democrat        86      10      0       3
       27              Republican      9       88      1       3
       42              Independent     47      41      1       10      "

Debunking the Myth Blog

"In New Hampshire, CNN's exit polling showed Nader taking more votes from Republicans than Democrats by a two-to-one margin. Nader received 2 percent of the Republican vote and 1 percent of the Democrat vote. Nader also took 7 percent of the independent vote.

At the same time, 6 percent of registered Democrats voted for Bush!

This is the real reason why Gore lost: He couldn't hold his own base!"

Nader, on Fewer Ballots, Still Could Sway Key States as in 2000 - Bloomberg

"Nader received 2.7 percent of the popular vote in 2000, when his name appeared on the ballots of 43 states plus D.C.

Nationwide exit polling conducted by Voter News Service showed that had Nader not been on the
ballot his voters would have preferred Democratic nominee Al Gore over Republican George W. Bush by a margin of 47 percent to 21 percent. Thirty percent said they wouldn't have voted."

Fun With Exit Polls

I've had some on-going discussions with a friend on the effect of third party candidates.  A few items popped up that I thought worth blogging. 

For example, the idea that all Green votes are automatically Democratic votes lost is patently false.  It's simple to put together but it don't work like that in reality.   Exit polling has demonstrated that in the past. It's not even close to being right in independently minded places like Maine and New Hampshire.  Items on the 2000 race for Maine, New Hampshire and the whole country.

Decision 2000 - Main Exit Polls

"       GORE    BUSH    BUCHANAN        NADER
       No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a:
       % of total      category        % of category
       31              Democrat        86      10      0       3
       27              Republican      9       88      1       3
       42              Independent     47      41      1       10      "

Debunking the Myth Blog

"In New Hampshire, CNN's exit polling showed Nader taking more votes from Republicans than Democrats by a two-to-one margin. Nader received 2 percent of the Republican vote and 1 percent of the Democrat vote. Nader also took 7 percent of the independent vote.

At the same time, 6 percent of registered Democrats voted for Bush!

This is the real reason why Gore lost: He couldn't hold his own base!"

Nader, on Fewer Ballots, Still Could Sway Key States as in 2000 - Bloomberg

"Nader received 2.7 percent of the popular vote in 2000, when his name appeared on the ballots of 43 states plus D.C.

Nationwide exit polling conducted by Voter News Service showed that had Nader not been on the
ballot his voters would have preferred Democratic nominee Al Gore over Republican George W. Bush by a margin of 47 percent to 21 percent. Thirty percent said they wouldn't have voted."